NFL Week 3 Predictions

I got spanked last week, going a miserable 8-8. Picks are hard early in the season as teams are still finding themselves. (That's my story, and I'm sticking to it.) As I alluded to last week, you can't read too much into September performance. A team can look great one week, lousy the next. But, I think I can do better this week. Peter King gives every team one mulligan a season, so I will give myself one.

Onto this week.

Cardinals @ Falcons
This is a clear mismatch. The Falcons have gotten off to a fast start, going 2-0 so far. Vick last week looked more comfortable in his new offense. He is still making his splash as a runner rather than a quarterback. Vick's yards-per-game passing average is 171 so far, just slightly over half of Vinny Testaverde's league leading 338.5 average. But he rushed for 109 yards against the Rams and is the team leader in rushing. Interestingly, the key offensive statistics for Atlanta are little different than for Arizona. Passing: 342 yards for Vick, 341 for McCown. Rushing: 119 yards for Vick, 118 yards for Smith. Receiving (leaders for each team): 131 yards for Crumpler, 106 yards for Fitzgerald. The key difference is on defense, where the Cardinals are a lowly 30th in the league against the run and are giving up an average of 412.5 yards per game. Prediction: Falcons.

Ravens @ Bengals
Another of those reunion games, with Baltimore facing its former defensive coordinator Marvin Lewis. For the first time since the Ravens came into being, this is a very even matchup. Lewis has his young Bengal defense playing better, though still no match for the Raven unit. The Ravens are banged up and the Bengal offense is playing well, at least statistically. (They failed to score a touchdown last week.) Due to the injuries in Baltimore and the weakness of their passing game, I will go with Cincinnati. Prediction: Bengals.

Eagles @ Lions
Coming off an impressive win against the Vikings, the Eagles now take on the undefeated, division leading Lions. I just had to say that, since I probably will not get the chance to write so highly about Detroit again any time soon. The Eagles won impressively on the scoreboard, but they got pushed around all over the field. The Vikings could have easily put up two more touchdowns were it not for their own mistakes. The one thing the defense accomplished was to put constant pressure on Culpepper, recording four sacks. The one big play McNabb had was the touchdown to Owens, which a Tice challenge would have overturned. The Lions are playing well on offense, with Harrington starting to come into his own with some good receivers to work with. They may be undefeated, but the Lions have only beaten the Bears and the Texans. The Eagles are the better team all around, but they need to take care to not overlook a team that plays well at home. Prediction: Eagles.

Texans @ Chiefs
If the Lions sitting atop their division undefeated is a surprise, what does one call seeing the Chiefs at 0-2 on the bottom of theirs? They are a game behind the Chargers, for crying out loud! This matchup of winless teams features the two worst defenses in the NFL, in terms of points allowed (the only stat that really matters). Both feature strong offensive units. The Chiefs will be without their workhorse running back, Priest Holmes. I really, really want to pick Houston for an upset, mainly because the Texan offense is at full strength and the Chiefs are hobbled a bit because of Holmes. The game is in KC, and coming off an 8-8 week I don't feel bold enough. Prediction: Chiefs.

Steelers @ Dolphins
If the Steelers were at full strength, I would pick them to win this clash of disappointments. But they are starting a virgin quarterback in Roethlisberger. The Dolphins do not have much in the way of offense, but their defense is still good. Pittsburgh has a weak defense, and will not have much offense with Ben. Prediction: Dolphins.

Bears @ Vikings
You just know the Vikings have been kicking themselves all week. After pushing the Eagle defense all over the field, and winning in just about every statistical category except score and turnovers, they have to face a surprising Bear team coming off an impressive win against the Packers. I was impressed with young QB Rex Grossman and the rest of the Bear offense. But they are banged up in the secondary, missing two starters to injury. Not what you want when facing the fireworks of Minnesota. Prediction: Vikings.

Browns @ Giants
The Browns are another banged up team, having lost their prize draft pick Winslow among others, and are coming off a truly awful game. The Giants are coming off a solid game with Kurt Warner finally breaking that losing streak that stretched back to Super Bowl 36. He's not MVP Warner by a long shot, but he is showing that he can still be effective, if the pass rush can be kept at bay. The Browns aren't the team to pressure Warner, so look for the Giants to put up some touchdowns. Prediction: Giants.

Saints @ Rams
A matchup of two high power offenses and two weak defenses. The Saints have had the talent on offense for a while now, but have always underachieved. The Rams have the more reliable offense and are playing at home where they have a distinct advantage. Prediction: Rams.

Jaguars @ Titans
The Jags are 2-0 so far, but have to be the least impressive 2-0 team out there. The touted offense has scored two touchdowns so far, one per game. They have only scored 20 points this season. The Jags are winning because of a defense that is allowing 8 points per game and 2.8 yards per rush (best in the AFC). The victory over Denver was as much as Bronco errors as it was about Jaguar football. The Jags won't have that advantage this week against one of the better teams. Prediction: Titans.

Chargers @ Broncos
In my week 1 predictions I pointed out that no one goes 0-16 in the NFL these days. The Chargers proved that the first week but getting in the W column. Now they face a quality team. The Broncos should be 2-0. If Shanahan hadn't gotten cute at the end of the Jaguar game, they likely would have kicked the field goal and gone up 9-7. But Mike wanted one more run to snip a few yards off the field goal attempt, Griffin fumbles, game over. The Chargers have scored a lot of points, but have given up a lot as well. The Bronco defense should be able to cut down on the Charger scoring and Jake Plummer and Griffin will exploit the sad defense of San Diego. Prediction: Broncos.

Packers @ Colts
A matchup between two of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL. For Manning, this is old news. So far, he's faced Brady, McNair, and now Favre. The Colt offense is as explosive as ever. Edgerrin James has rushed for 266 yards so far this season, against two top defenses. But he may not be playing due to a hamstring injury. Indy has a capable backup in Dominic Rhodes. Manning is off to his normal, high octane start. The Packers, on the other hand, have been very inconsistent. The defense played well against the Panthers, then fell apart against the Bears. Favre has not gotten into a groove at all passing. The Pack have become a powerhouse rushing team. But for that approach to work, you have to have a strong defense (look at Baltimore). With a weak defense, you need to have a solid, consistent, high-powered passing game (look at KC last year). The Packers do not have either. They will be up and down this year, as they were last year, but are no match for the Colts. (On the other hand, I am 0-2 picking Packer games this year.) Prediction: Colts.

49ers @ Seahawks
The Seahawks are clicking in all facets of the game. So far they are living up to the preseason hype as a Super Bowl contender. The 49ers are looking like a team that shed most of its decent players in the offseason and are playing with players who would be 2nd and 3rd stringers on other teams. Wait, they did do that. Prediction: Seahawks.

Bucs @ Raiders
How the mighty have fallen. What a difference a year makes. (Insert your favorite cliche here.) The Super Bowl 37 rematch presents little drama as the 0-2 Bucs, a.k.a. Raiders East, face the 1-1 Raiders, a.k.a. Raiders West. A lot has been and will be made of the reunion element of the game, mainly because the football element of the game will not be impressive. The Buc offense has done exactly nothing this season. No touchdowns. And fans thought they were bad on offense when Dungy was the coach. They are 30th in the league in yards per game and rushing offense. They climb to 26th in passing offense. In fairness, the Bucs are 3rd in the league in yards per game allowed on defense. But, the Raiders are 4th in the league in that stat, so the advantage is neutralized. The Raider offense, while not reminding anyone of the juggernaut of 2002, is moving along nicely. Prediction: Raiders.

Cowboys @ Redskins
A classic coaching matchup with Parcells and Gibbs facing off again. Both teams are 1-1 and have been very inconsistent. The Redskins lost to the Giants in a game where they turned the ball over 7 times. Having only lost by 6 points, one can definitely say they threw the game away and should be 2-0. The Redskin offense is clicking, but with start Ramsey at quarterback. Given that I like Ramsey and thought Gibbs' only mistake so far was in trading for Brunell, that's not too bad of a move. This game is about defense. The Cowboy offense is clicking too, at least in the passing game. Testaverde is the league leader in passing yardage (677 yards in 2 games). The Cowboy defense hasn't done well so far, giving up 47 points. But most of those came against Minnesota. They held the Browns without a touchdown. The Browns. In the end, the Skins bring more to the table. Prediction: Redskins.

Last Week: 8-8
Season: 19-13